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	<title>Comments on: Facts Shatter Global Warming Denier Claims</title>
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	<link>http://theparagraph.com/2008/06/facts-shatter-global-warming-denier-claims/</link>
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	<pubDate>Wed, 07 Jan 2009 01:36:26 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: hungeski</title>
		<link>http://theparagraph.com/2008/06/facts-shatter-global-warming-denier-claims/#comment-22180</link>
		<dc:creator>hungeski</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jun 2008 03:25:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://theparagraph.com/?p=145#comment-22180</guid>
		<description>So let's roadtest this method.  I will list all the claims from the comments above as I understand them, then try to find answers to them from RC Wiki. ...

&lt;strong&gt;1.&lt;/strong&gt; Global warming stopped in 1998 as evidenced by May 2008 being the coldest May in 20 years.

&lt;strong&gt;Answer:&lt;/strong&gt; From "Coby Beck":http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/11/4/175028/329: At the time, 1998 was a record high year in both the CRU and the NASA GISS analyses. In fact, it blew away the previous record by .2 degrees C. (That previous record went all the way back to 1997, by the way!)

According to NASA, it was elevated far above the trend line because 1998 was the year of the strongest El Nino of the century. Choosing that year as a starting point is a classic cherry pick and demonstrates why it is necessary to remove chaotic year-to year-variability (aka: weather) by smoothing out the data.

&lt;strong&gt;2.&lt;/strong&gt; 1997 and 2005 warming was due to El Nino and the peak of the solar cycle.

&lt;strong&gt;Answer:&lt;/strong&gt; From "Coby Beck":http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/28/090/30666: ... According to PMOD at the World Radiation Center there has been no increase in solar irradiance since at least 1978, when satellite observations began. This means that for the last thirty years, while the temperature has been rising fastest, the sun has not changed.

Also, see answer to 1.

From "RealClimate":http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/10/global-warming-on-earth/: ... there was no El Niño this year [2005].

&lt;strong&gt;3.&lt;/strong&gt; Variability in temperature and CO2 graphs and the lag in CO2 behind temparature "show that carbon dioxide level has had no significant influence on climate."

&lt;strong&gt;Answer:&lt;/strong&gt; From "Coby Beck":http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/26/224933/67: Given the fact that human industrialization is unique in the history of planet earth, do we really need historical precedent for CO2-triggered climate change before we accept what we observe today? ...

But putting this crucial point aside, history does indeed provide some relevant insights and dire warnings.

During the glacial/interglacial cycles, temperatures and CO2 concentrations showed remarkable correlation. Closer examination reveals that CO2 does not lead the temperature changes, but lags by many centuries. Even so, the full extent of the warming can not be explained without the effects of CO2. Though these cycles do not demonstrate that greenhouse gas initiated warming, they do lend credence to the importance of CO2 and CH4 in setting the planetary thermostat.

&lt;strong&gt;4.&lt;/strong&gt; CO2 in the atmosphere is insignificant to warming, because "absorption of infrared radiation takes place close to the surface ..."

&lt;strong&gt;Answer:&lt;/strong&gt; From "NERC":http://www.nerc.ac.uk/about/consult/debate/climatechange/summary.asp#greenhouse: The greenhouse effect has been established for well over a century and the physics is well understood - this is not "just a theory", it is an accepted scientific principle. Without the greenhouse effect the planet would be over 30°C cooler than it is today. It is the extra greenhouse gases humans are adding that has changed climate over the last 50 years or more.

From "RealClimate - The CO2 Problem in 6 Easy Steps":http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/08/the-co2-problem-in-6-easy-steps/:

1. There is a natural greenhouse effect. 

2. Trace gases contribute to the natural greenhouse effect. 

3. The trace greenhouse gases have increased markedly due to human emissions 

4. Radiative forcing is a useful diagnostic and can easily be calculated: ... The total forcing from the trace greenhouse gases mentioned in Step 3, is currently about 2.5 W/m2 

5. Climate sensitivity is around 3ºC for a doubling of CO2 

6. Radiative forcing x climate sensitivity is a significant number: ... additional warming (at equilibrium) would be 2 to 5 ºC. That is significant.

OK, I think the RC Wiki is working well.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So let&#8217;s roadtest this method.  I will list all the claims from the comments above as I understand them, then try to find answers to them from RC Wiki. ...</p>
<p><strong>1.</strong> Global warming stopped in 1998 as evidenced by May 2008 being the coldest May in 20 years.</p>
<p><strong>Answer:</strong> From <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/11/4/175028/329">Coby Beck</a>: At the time, 1998 was a record high year in both the CRU and the NASA GISS analyses. In fact, it blew away the previous record by .2 degrees C. (That previous record went all the way back to 1997, by the way!)</p>
<p>According to NASA, it was elevated far above the trend line because 1998 was the year of the strongest El Nino of the century. Choosing that year as a starting point is a classic cherry pick and demonstrates why it is necessary to remove chaotic year-to year-variability (aka: weather) by smoothing out the data.</p>
<p><strong>2.</strong> 1997 and 2005 warming was due to El Nino and the peak of the solar cycle.</p>
<p><strong>Answer:</strong> From <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/28/090/30666">Coby Beck</a>: ... According to PMOD at the World Radiation Center there has been no increase in solar irradiance since at least 1978, when satellite observations began. This means that for the last thirty years, while the temperature has been rising fastest, the sun has not changed.</p>
<p>Also, see answer to 1.</p>
<p>From <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/10/global-warming-on-earth/">RealClimate</a>: ... there was no El Niño this year [2005].</p>
<p><strong>3.</strong> Variability in temperature and CO2 graphs and the lag in CO2 behind temparature &#8220;show that carbon dioxide level has had no significant influence on climate.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>Answer:</strong> From <a href="http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/26/224933/67">Coby Beck</a>: Given the fact that human industrialization is unique in the history of planet earth, do we really need historical precedent for CO2-triggered climate change before we accept what we observe today? ...</p>
<p>But putting this crucial point aside, history does indeed provide some relevant insights and dire warnings.</p>
<p>During the glacial/interglacial cycles, temperatures and CO2 concentrations showed remarkable correlation. Closer examination reveals that CO2 does not lead the temperature changes, but lags by many centuries. Even so, the full extent of the warming can not be explained without the effects of CO2. Though these cycles do not demonstrate that greenhouse gas initiated warming, they do lend credence to the importance of CO2 and CH4 in setting the planetary thermostat.</p>
<p><strong>4.</strong> CO2 in the atmosphere is insignificant to warming, because &#8220;absorption of infrared radiation takes place close to the surface &#8230;&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>Answer:</strong> From <a href="http://www.nerc.ac.uk/about/consult/debate/climatechange/summary.asp#greenhouse">NERC</a>: The greenhouse effect has been established for well over a century and the physics is well understood &#8211; this is not &#8220;just a theory&#8221;, it is an accepted scientific principle. Without the greenhouse effect the planet would be over 30°C cooler than it is today. It is the extra greenhouse gases humans are adding that has changed climate over the last 50 years or more.</p>
<p>From <a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/08/the-co2-problem-in-6-easy-steps/">RealClimate &#8211; The CO2 Problem in 6 Easy Steps</a>:</p>
<p>1. There is a natural greenhouse effect. </p>
<p>2. Trace gases contribute to the natural greenhouse effect. </p>
<p>3. The trace greenhouse gases have increased markedly due to human emissions </p>
<p>4. Radiative forcing is a useful diagnostic and can easily be calculated: ... The total forcing from the trace greenhouse gases mentioned in Step 3, is currently about 2.5 W/m2 </p>
<p>5. Climate sensitivity is around 3ºC for a doubling of CO2 </p>
<p>6. Radiative forcing x climate sensitivity is a significant number: ... additional warming (at equilibrium) would be 2 to 5 ºC. That is significant.</p>
<p>OK, I think the RC Wiki is working well.</p>
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		<title>By: Dan Pangburn</title>
		<link>http://theparagraph.com/2008/06/facts-shatter-global-warming-denier-claims/#comment-22031</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan Pangburn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Jun 2008 10:46:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://theparagraph.com/?p=145#comment-22031</guid>
		<description>Bias can be avoided by using raw data. Graphs of climate history (raw data from cited credible sources) presented at http://www.middlebury.net:80/op-ed/pangburn.html show that carbon dioxide level has had no significant influence on climate. Absorption of infrared radiation takes place close to the surface; half within 24 meters. Doubling the CO2 moves it about 4% closer. As the atmospheric carbon dioxide level continues to go up and the average global temperature doesnâ€™t more and more people are going to look foolish.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bias can be avoided by using raw data. Graphs of climate history (raw data from cited credible sources) presented at <a href="http://www.middlebury.net:80/op-ed/pangburn.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.middlebury.net:80/op-ed/pangburn.html</a> show that carbon dioxide level has had no significant influence on climate. Absorption of infrared radiation takes place close to the surface; half within 24 meters. Doubling the CO2 moves it about 4% closer. As the atmospheric carbon dioxide level continues to go up and the average global temperature doesnâ€™t more and more people are going to look foolish.</p>
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		<title>By: hungeski</title>
		<link>http://theparagraph.com/2008/06/facts-shatter-global-warming-denier-claims/#comment-22026</link>
		<dc:creator>hungeski</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Jun 2008 01:17:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://theparagraph.com/?p=145#comment-22026</guid>
		<description>Johnnyb -- Keep it civil.  And please look into the scientific fact referenced by the article.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Johnnyb&#8212;Keep it civil.  And please look into the scientific fact referenced by the article.</p>
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		<title>By: Johnnyb</title>
		<link>http://theparagraph.com/2008/06/facts-shatter-global-warming-denier-claims/#comment-22025</link>
		<dc:creator>Johnnyb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Jun 2008 00:39:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://theparagraph.com/?p=145#comment-22025</guid>
		<description>How pathetic is it that the reality deniers are still trying to blame Exxon and rightwing thinktanks instead of confronting the obvious flaws in their own scientific "truths".  UAH has confirmed that May 2008 is the coldest May in 20 years, and is the exact same temperature as it was in 1979 when they started the Satelite Temperature monitoring system because of the Global cooling panic.

In 1997, the Global Warmists scream, "Oh no!  The World is coming to an End because its getting hotter!"  The Naturalists say, "Calm down.  Of course it is getting hotter because we have an El Nino and we are at the peak of the Solar cycle."  Global Warmers say "Oh, no."

2005: Naturalists say, "The Global Warming trend is over because of a peak in the current Solar Cycle, and a shift to the cool phase of the PDO."  Global Warmers shriek, "Oh no!  Watch an inconvient truth!  Look at Hurricane Katrina."  Then during the El Nino of 2007 they said, "Look its warm in January, we are all going to die!"  Naturalists said, "Wait.  El Ninos are usually followed by La Nina's, we are coming up on a solar minimum temperatures will be going down real soon."  Global Warmers say "Oh no, we are all going to die!!!"

Who has always been right on the Global Climate issue?  The Naturalists.  The Chicken Littles were right only when they agreed with the naturalists, every other time they were wrong.  They were wrong in the 70s when they predicted an Ice Age, they were right in the 90s when they predicted Global Warming, but for the wrong reasons, and so far their hypothesis of CO2 Global Warming has been blown out of the water by the fact that it stopped in 1998, and confirmed the Naturalists who said that temperatures would go down which they have, and are continuing to do so.

The Myth of CO2 causing Global Warming has been throughly busted, yet the Greenies still cry "Exxon!"  Oil is currently at record highs because demand is outstripping supply, but the reason that we have not been drilling is because of the Greenies.  Makes me wonder, "Who is really in the Oil Company's pocket."  That oil is always going to be in the ground waiting to be drilled, but if the oil companies could somehow set that aside, and not have to compete for that oil or spend the money to develop it, while still make record profits, then who really wins by the green agenda?  Obviously the OIL COMPANIES!!

Wise up you morons!!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How pathetic is it that the reality deniers are still trying to blame Exxon and rightwing thinktanks instead of confronting the obvious flaws in their own scientific &#8220;truths&#8221;.  UAH has confirmed that May 2008 is the coldest May in 20 years, and is the exact same temperature as it was in 1979 when they started the Satelite Temperature monitoring system because of the Global cooling panic.</p>
<p>In 1997, the Global Warmists scream, &#8220;Oh no!  The World is coming to an End because its getting hotter!&#8221;  The Naturalists say, &#8220;Calm down.  Of course it is getting hotter because we have an El Nino and we are at the peak of the Solar cycle.&#8221;  Global Warmers say &#8220;Oh, no.&#8221;</p>
<p>2005: Naturalists say, &#8220;The Global Warming trend is over because of a peak in the current Solar Cycle, and a shift to the cool phase of the PDO.&#8221;  Global Warmers shriek, &#8220;Oh no!  Watch an inconvient truth!  Look at Hurricane Katrina.&#8221;  Then during the El Nino of 2007 they said, &#8220;Look its warm in January, we are all going to die!&#8221;  Naturalists said, &#8220;Wait.  El Ninos are usually followed by La Nina&#8217;s, we are coming up on a solar minimum temperatures will be going down real soon.&#8221;  Global Warmers say &#8220;Oh no, we are all going to die!!!&#8221;</p>
<p>Who has always been right on the Global Climate issue?  The Naturalists.  The Chicken Littles were right only when they agreed with the naturalists, every other time they were wrong.  They were wrong in the 70s when they predicted an Ice Age, they were right in the 90s when they predicted Global Warming, but for the wrong reasons, and so far their hypothesis of CO2 Global Warming has been blown out of the water by the fact that it stopped in 1998, and confirmed the Naturalists who said that temperatures would go down which they have, and are continuing to do so.</p>
<p>The Myth of CO2 causing Global Warming has been throughly busted, yet the Greenies still cry &#8220;Exxon!&#8221;  Oil is currently at record highs because demand is outstripping supply, but the reason that we have not been drilling is because of the Greenies.  Makes me wonder, &#8220;Who is really in the Oil Company&#8217;s pocket.&#8221;  That oil is always going to be in the ground waiting to be drilled, but if the oil companies could somehow set that aside, and not have to compete for that oil or spend the money to develop it, while still make record profits, then who really wins by the green agenda?  Obviously the OIL COMPANIES!!</p>
<p>Wise up you morons!!</p>
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		<title>By: Paulidan</title>
		<link>http://theparagraph.com/2008/06/facts-shatter-global-warming-denier-claims/#comment-22017</link>
		<dc:creator>Paulidan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Jun 2008 18:00:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://theparagraph.com/?p=145#comment-22017</guid>
		<description>www.spaceweather.com

The sun abides. It does not care for our politics. It will cool the earth in the coming years and nature herself will ram your foot down your throat.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.spaceweather.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.spaceweather.com</a></p>
<p>The sun abides. It does not care for our politics. It will cool the earth in the coming years and nature herself will ram your foot down your throat.</p>
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